Will Bitcoin’s Price Delight or Dismay? A Charted Comedy of Errors Awaits!

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Alas! The price of Bitcoin has taken a rather unfortunate turn, declining by nearly 2% within the last twenty-four hours and slipping almost 3% from yesterday’s brief pinnacle of hope. At first blush, one might find little to spark excitement in such numbers.

Yet, dear reader, beneath the surface of this monotonous chart, a most curious shift has occurred in the on-chain realm, marking the first time in three moons that we have witnessed such a change. While these developments do not guarantee a rally as the year 2026 approaches, they may indeed serve as the initial bricks in the construction of one-if fortune is kind to us! 🏗️

A Momentum Shift Begins, but Proof is Required

Two signals have made their appearance, both separate yet occurring with remarkable timing, much like a pair of well-matched dance partners at a ball.

The first of these signals is the On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures the buying and selling pressures through the lens of volume. Between the dates of December 21 and December 26, the price of Bitcoin exhibited a modest upward trend, while OBV chose to remain obstinately stagnant, producing lower highs-a bearish divergence indeed! It is no wonder that the price failed to ascend further on December 26, as the volume did not accompany this fleeting rise. A true disappointment for all aspiring speculators! 😒

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This very week, the OBV did break above the trend line connecting those dismal lower highs, suggesting that stronger buying pressure may be looming on the horizon. However, this signal shall not be deemed confirmed until OBV achieves a higher high above 1.58 million. Until that miraculous moment occurs, we remain in a state of eager anticipation.

The second signal emerges from the Hodler net position change metric, which tracks wallets that have settled in for the long haul, beyond 155 days. These holders are the slowest ships in the vast ocean of the market.

On December 26, this metric turned positively exuberant for the first time since late September, as long-term holders added a commendable 3,783.8 BTC to their coffers. They are not swayed by the whims of short-term fluctuations; they purchase out of steadfast conviction-a refreshing sign indeed! 🌱

For a relief rally to materialize, both sides must play their parts: OBV must follow suit, and Hodlers must continue their industrious additions. One without the other would be akin to a waltz with only one partner-utterly unsatisfactory! 💃

The Bitcoin Price Map That Determines Year-End or Early 2026

The Bitcoin price still faces considerable obstacles. The price levels tell a tale of their own.

For nearly two weeks, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the lofty summit of $90,840. This level has proven quite unyielding, rejecting every advance since December 12. Until this barrier is surmounted, every hopeful bounce feels but a temporary reprieve. ⏳

Once above $90,840, the first true checkpoint for a relief rally lies near $97,190-an area where the BTC price fell below on the fateful day of November 14.

Should the rally extend its reach, the levels of $101,710 and $107,470 await on the horizon, like distant lands calling to the brave adventurer. 🗺️

Conversely, support stands at $86,915, which has valiantly held since December 19. Should this support falter, it opens the door to a much bleaker scenario at $80,560. The low liquidity of the year-end increases this peril. For now, based on the positioning of our long-term investors, there remains a glimmer of hope for the Bitcoin price to embark on a relief rally toward $90,840 and perhaps even beyond, provided the support at $86,910 holds firm. Onward we march! 🚀

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2025-12-27 16:43