Coinbase Plunges as JPMorgan Slashes Target Before Earnings

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Markets

What to know:

  • JPMorgan has nibbled Coinbase’s December 2026 price target down to $290 from $399, ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings, blaming sleepy crypto trading volumes, pale prices and USDC’s growth taking a nudge in the wrong direction.
  • The bank still rates Coinbase Overweight, but foresees a sharp step-down in earnings and EBITDA, even after counting a full quarter of revenue from the Deribit derivatives acquisition.
  • Other chaps, including Barclays and Compass Point, are gloomier or bearish, hinting that retail trading, blockchain rewards and subscription-and-services revenue may miss expectations and stay snugly tied to the whims of overall crypto prices.

The crypto market downturn has been a squeeze on leading American exchange Coinbase (COIN), whose stock has slid more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October flirtation with $126,000, including a 27% tumble in 2026 alone.

In a bid to catch the tumble, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington has chopped his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report coming after the close on Thursday.

Worthington remains a bullish beacon and his trimmed target still hints at about 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1655.

He projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter, a yawning drop driven mainly by lower trading volumes, softer crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he says.

Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of about $263 billion for the quarter. He also notes lower USDC in circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of about $312 million. Those headwinds are, at least, partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August.

Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of about $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing roughly $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the prior quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.

On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of about $670 million, below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in under guidance as the company reins in costs.

Other sell-siders weigh in

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish says his estimates sit roughly 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish writes, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.

Barclays pegs Coinbase exchange volume at about $261 billion for the quarter. He notes Robinhood’s reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.

Compass Point takes a gloomier tack. Analyst Ed Engel says he’s negative on the stock into earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel writes. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he describes as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since Q3 2024.

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will likely focus on commentary about trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and whether newer ventures like Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business can meaningfully offset swings in spot crypto markets.

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2026-02-10 20:15