Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: McGlone’s $28K U-Turn – Panic or Prophecy?

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Markets

What to know (or what to laugh at, depending on your perspective):

  • Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone has executed a U-turn so sharp it would make a hoopy frood in a spaceship blush, revising his bitcoin downside target from a doom-laden $10,000 to a slightly less apocalyptic $28,000. Apparently, his earlier prediction was about as popular as a Vogons’ poetry reading.
  • McGlone now insists $28,000 is the “more probable level” based on historical price distribution, which is analyst-speak for “I’ve looked at some squiggly lines and made an educated guess.” He also maintains that his analysis is a glowing neon sign saying, “Do Not Buy Bitcoin. Or anything risky. Ever.”
  • Critics like Jason Fernandes and Mati Greenspan are still raising their eyebrows so high they’re in danger of getting stuck. They argue that $28,000 is about as likely as finding a three-headed Zaphod Beeblebrox, and warn that such forecasts can send crypto markets into a tailspin faster than the Heart of Gold on infinite improbability drive.

So, Mike McGlone, the man who once predicted bitcoin would plummet to $10,000-a forecast that went over about as well as a Vogon constructor fleet at a galactic party-has now decided that $28,000 is the new black. Or, more accurately, the new “less terrifying but still pretty scary” number. This volte-face came after he was roundly criticized on social media, where his forecasts were deemed “nonsensical” and “alarmist,” which is just a fancy way of saying “utter rubbish.”

Earlier this week, McGlone was waving his arms like a man trying to flag down a passing spaceship, warning that collapsing crypto prices could signal broader financial doom and that bitcoin might revert to $10,000 if U.S. equities decided to take a nosedive. He painted bitcoin as the high-beta risk asset equivalent of a towel-useful, but not something you want to bet your life on.

But then, in a move that would make even the Guide’s editors proud, McGlone posted on X (formerly known as Twitter, but let’s not get into that) that $28,000 was the new, more probable level. He also reiterated that his analysis was a big, flashing “DON’T PANIC” sign for investors, though he might as well have just handed out towels.

This revision came after Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, challenged McGlone to a debate on X and LinkedIn. McGlone liked the post but didn’t accept the challenge, which is the analytical equivalent of saying, “I’ll just leave this here and hope it goes away.” Fernandes, undeterred, told CoinDesk that his critique still stands, even after McGlone’s target got a makeover. “$28K is obviously more realistic than $10K,” he said, adding, “Proportionately fewer things need to go wrong for $28K than $10K.” Well, duh.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, chimed in to say that $28,000 was still “unlikely, but in markets, we never want to rule anything out.” He had previously called McGlone’s $10,000 forecast “literally nonsense,” which is about as damning as it gets in the world of financial analysis.

Fernandes had earlier suggested a more likely reset in the $40,000 to $50,000 range, unless the financial universe decided to implode. He noted that $28,000 is now closer to his lower bound than to McGlone’s original doomsday prediction. “It bears mentioning that he has adjusted his near-term outlook closer to my low end than his previous prediction,” Fernandes said, with the air of a man who’s just won a bet.

At the heart of this debate is more than just price targets. Fernandes warns that deterministic, alarmist framing can send markets into a tailspin faster than a squirrel in a leaf blower, putting “real capital at risk,” especially in the reflexive, panic-prone world of crypto. So, the next time you hear a forecast, remember: it’s probably about as reliable as a hitchhiker’s guide to the galaxy.

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2026-02-19 18:47