Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride: What You Need to Know Before the Jobs Report!

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<a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> hit by short-termism as rally fades ahead of U.S. jobs data

What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency values are decreasing because some investors are taking profits after a recent price increase to $74,000, while others are moving their money into safer investments due to the worsening conflict in the Middle East.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen about 3.7% in the last day, but it’s still trading just above $70,000. Overall, the cryptocurrency market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, is down 3.5% as the recent price increases slow down. Bitcoin hit a high of over $74,000 on Wednesday, and remains more than 6% higher over the past five days.

According to Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, the recent price drop is likely due to short-term traders selling after having initially bought during the recent price increase. He explained to CoinDesk that while prices did recover recently, there’s not strong belief that this upward trend will last.

Derivatives markets are increasingly showing a negative outlook. Currently, traders are paying to maintain their short positions, as indicated by consistently negative funding rates.

Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental demand for cryptocurrency remains strong. Recent data shows a surge in stablecoin deposits to exchanges – hitting a 2026 high – alongside positive investment flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating continued interest.

This situation creates a contradiction in the market: large buyers are purchasing Bitcoin directly, while traders betting on price drops are increasing their positions. Historically, this combination has often led to a ‘short squeeze’ – a rapid price increase forcing those betting against Bitcoin to buy it back, driving the price even higher. However, there’s no certainty this will happen this time.

Global political tensions are still affecting oil prices. Brent crude oil has risen over 22% in the last week because attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, and Iran’s response, have interrupted oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital route for about 20% of the world’s oil supply.

According to Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains down significantly (92%), and Goldman Sachs is predicting oil prices could reach $100 a barrel. Additionally, the yield curve is flattening once more, with shorter-term rates rising to 3.51% as investors reassess inflation risks.

Rising energy prices are making people worry about inflation, leading traders to think the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates as quickly as expected. This is already showing up in bond markets, where Treasury yields are increasing because investors believe inflation will stay high for a while.

Also, keep an eye on the U.S. jobs report coming out later today, as it will influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions about interest rates. Be prepared for potential market reactions!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Crypto
    • Nothing scheduled.
  • Macro
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February Est. 59K (Prev. 130K)
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. unemployment rate for February Est 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
    • March 6, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. average hourly earnings MoM for February Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 6: Metalpha (MATH), pre-market

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • No major governance votes & calls.
  • Unlocks
    • March 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.72% of its circulating supply worth around $288.77 million.
  • Token Launches
    • No major token launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Day 3 of 3: Quant 2026 (Varese, Italy)

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 1.15% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,398.30 (24hrs: -2.89%)
  • ETH is down 1.58% at $2,055.24 (24hrs: -3.01%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 1.22% at 2,008.56 (24hrs: -3.52%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 8 bps at 2.83%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.011% (-1.2209% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is unchanged at 99.23
  • Gold futures are up 0.69% at $5,100.10
  • Silver futures are up 1.64% at $83.03
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 0.62% at 55,620.84
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.72% at 25,757.29
  • FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,415.70
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,760.30
  • DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.61% at 47,954.74
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.56% at 6,830.71
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.26% at 22,748.99
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.98% at 33,610.00
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 3.12% at 7,318.90
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.15%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,804.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,905.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 47,804.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.47% (-0.02%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (-0.24%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,026 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $30.66
  • Total fees: 2.75 BTC / $198,402
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 104,755 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.71%

Technical Analysis

  • The ratio of altcoins (excluding top 10) to bitcoin is looking likely to close above the 50-week exponential moving average, implying no clear breakout for altcoinss relative to BTC.
  • With no clear RSI divergences it is unlikely we will see a sustained rally from the broader altcoin universe.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $205.71 (–1.54%), –0.40% at $204.89 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.73 (–6.61%), –0.70% at $22.57
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.77 (–5.60%), –0.91% at $8.69
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.60 (–5.63%), –0.71% at $15.49
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.00 (+1.01%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (–6.66%), –0.50% at $9.90
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $11.18 (–8.06%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.25 (–4.73%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $105.74 (+0.45%), –0.43% at $105.29
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.02 (–4.99%), unchanged at $35.00

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.81 (–4.53%), –0.30% at $139.39
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.25 (–3.85%)
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.93 (–2.46%), –1.01% at $7.85
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.96 (–10.93%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (–7.38%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$227.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $55.7 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$90.9 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.74 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 5.68 million

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2026-03-06 15:22