Bitcoin’s Post-Cycle Pout: Cowen’s Cryptic Rant 🐍💸

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Oh, how the mighty Bitcoin has fallen! A post-cycle phase, indeed! 🎭 Tightly wound liquidity and lackluster demand-truly a tale of two halves. 🧵

Crypto markets, that most capricious of lovers, may soon be entering a period of brief, flirtatious rallies, according to the ever-eloquent Benjamin Cowen. In his latest missive, the Q1 2026 Crypto Macro Risk Memo, Cowen posits that Bitcoin has long since abandoned its grand growth phase, now content to sulk in the shadows of its former glory. 🧊

With macro liquidity as tight as a Victorian corset, price gains are but fleeting flirtations, not the start of a new, enduring romance. 💔

Bitcoin Likely Past 2023-2025 Cycle Peak, According to Cowen

Cowen’s report, a veritable opera of data and dread, examines crypto through the lens of macro liquidity, market structure, and the elusive specter of participation trends. Instead of short-term price predictions, he offers a masterclass in risk management-because nothing says “romance” like caution. 🧭

The OG coin, Bitcoin, has likely completed its 2023-2025 cycle, according to Cowen. A digestion phase, much like the ennui of mid-2019. 🍽️

Bitcoin peaked in the fourth quarter of last year, a trend as predictable as a Shakespearean tragedy. Yet, this peak was marked by apathy, not the ecstatic fervor of 2017 or 2021. How dull! 🥱

Image Source: Crypto Macro Risk Memo

Contrast this with the previous peaks, where social engagement was as lively as a Parisian café. Now, even as Bitcoin soars, it is met with the indifference of a bored aristocrat. 🤷‍♂️

Cowen warns that apathy-driven peaks lead to choppier declines, not the dramatic crashes of yore. A far more insidious fate! 🧨

Even so, price action during these phases is as erratic as a Wildean epigram. Frequent countertrend rallies, yet the broader trend remains unyielding. 🕳️

Macro conditions, ever the fickle lover, add another layer of caution. Economic growth is cooling, yet not so much as to warrant a full-blown crisis. A delicate balance, indeed. 🧊

History shows Bitcoin often peaks before monetary policy stabilizes. A tragic irony, if ever there was one. 🕰️

Cowen Warns Post-Peak Rallies Face Structural Selling Pressure

Cowen, ever the dramatist, cites cycle-relative data to warn of post-peak selling pressure. Calendar returns may seem robust, but once Bitcoin enters its post-peak phase, returns weaken like a waning star. 🌙 Long-term holders, those stalwart guardians of supply, sell into strength, creating a cloud of overhead supply. 🌫️

Image Source: Crypto Macro Risk Memo

A core section of the memo outlines how current market behavior fits a post-cycle environment: a litany of woes, from muted retail excitement to weak correlations with equities. 📉

  • Market peaks formed without broad retail excitement or speculative excess-how utterly unimpressive! 🤷‍♀️
  • Rallies face selling pressure from long-term holders distributing into strength. A most ungracious act. 🙃
  • Liquidity growth lacks the risk-taking capital seen in past bull markets. How pedestrian! 🚶‍♂️
  • Correlations with equities remain weak and unstable. A most inconvenient truth. 🧩
  • Price action favors short-term trades over long-term trend moves. How very 21st century! 🕒

Crypto markets rely not only on liquidity but on its willingness to take risks. Though the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown again, Cowen suggests it is merely a matter of reserve management, not the wild speculation of yore. 🧠

Previous crypto bull runs were fueled by emergency policy responses to severe economic stress. That backdrop has not returned. A most disappointing absence. 🙃

Bitcoin Shows Weak Correlation With Equities as Liquidity Stays Selective

During strong crypto bull phases, Bitcoin usually moves closely with other risk assets, a dance as predictable as a waltz. Current correlations, however, show a split. 🔄

Equities and metals remain linked to macro-driven capital, while crypto trades with less consistency. A most unseemly lack of unity. 🤝

Given all these, Cowen sees the market in a digestion phase similar to 2019. Rallies are likely, and some assets may perform well over short periods. However, structural limits remain until liquidity conditions, participation levels, and on-chain signals reset. For now, crypto appears better suited to tactical positioning rather than broad, long-term expansion. 🎯

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2026-01-17 18:09