Bitcoin’s Descent: A New Kind of Hell?

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  • Bitcoin’s worst cycle drawdowns have compressed from -92.7% in 2011 to just -68.5% in 2022.
  • Bitcoin demand flipped positive at +1,200 BTC after bottoming near -154,000 BTC in December 2024.
  • Fear and Greed sits in single digits, yet structural data suggests this selloff differs from 2018.

Bitcoin, that old sinner, now lies 47% in the dirt from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index is practically a ghost story. Google searches for “BTC to zero” hit five-year highs-because nothing says “confidence” like Googling financial annihilation. ETFs are fleeing like they’re escaping a haunted vault, and analysts are scribbling doomscroll forecasts: “$25,000! $25,000!” But crypto analyst Sminston With, with the subtlety of a sledgehammer, insists this may not be the apocalypse we thought it was.

Bitcoin’s Drawdown History Tells a Deeper Story

Sminston With, armed with a decade and a half of Bitcoin’s darkest days, animated the data to paint a picture of despair… and maybe a glimmer of hope. The chart tracks every day Bitcoin spent wallowing in drawdown hell. What emerges is a tale of gradual, grudging improvement.

In 2011, Bitcoin’s first heartbreak bottomed at -92.7%. The histogram? A crimson smear, as if the market had bled out its soul. By 2013-2015, the red tail stretched further, with over 1,500 days spent in the trenches between -60% and -80%. Painful? Yes. Existential crisis material? Absolutely.

Bitcoin is down ~47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126K. Fear & Greed at single digits. “BTC to zero” Google searches at 5-year highs. ETF outflows mounting. People are calling for $40K, even $25K.

So I animated 15 years of drawdown data to put this moment in context.- – -…

– Sminston With 👁 (@sminston_with)

By 2017, Bitcoin briefly kissed $11,562 before 2018’s -78.4% gut punch. The red dominated, like a bad breakup album. But here’s the twist: the red tail is shrinking. By 2021, green bars near 0% began to sprout like stubborn weeds. Bitcoin was spending more time near its highs than it ever had-progress, if you squint.

Each Cycle Bottom Has Been Less Severe Than the Last

Sminston With, our crypto prophet, notes the trend: -92.7%, -87%, -84%, -77%, -68.5% in 2022. The floor keeps rising, like a drunkard climbing stairs. The 2022 crash was still a gut punch, but at least it wasn’t a full-body exorcism. Green growth, red tail shrinkage-the market’s new mantra: “Less pain, same drama.”

Where the Current Selloff Fits in the Data

Today, Bitcoin languishes 47% below its peak. Sentiment? A frigid -10 on the Fear and Greed scale. Is this 2018 2.0? Sminston With says no-not quite. The green and white zones are replacing red plunge zones. The dives are getting shallower, like a toddler learning to fall. Prices could still drop further, but the trend is clear: the market’s learning to dance with gravity.

Bitcoin Demand Is Starting to Shift Too

Crypto commentator CryptosRus adds fuel to the fire: Bitcoin’s demand flipped positive at +1,200 BTC, a first in months. Back in December, demand bottomed near -154,000 BTC-a slump that made the market feel like a deflated balloon. Now? Selling is cooling, and accumulation is stirring, like a bear waking from hibernation.

BITCOIN DEMAND JUST FLIPPED POSITIVE

After nearly three months of persistent weakness, ’s apparent demand has finally turned back above zero – now sitting around +1,200 .

Back in December, demand bottomed near -154K , a stretch that helped explain the sluggish…

– CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us)

When demand turns positive, the market’s foundation rebuilds. Selling slows, and structural accumulation creeps in. One data point isn’t a revolution, but history whispers: this could be the first shovelful of dirt on the road to recovery. Or just a mirage. Either way, the show must go on.

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2026-02-21 14:34