Bitcoin’s Curse: Why Every Bounce Fails (Ghosts Are Involved)

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Bitcoin lingers near $87,820, unmoved by the day’s whims and still nursing a 4% bruise from the past month. Buyers descend like moths to a flame at every dip, but each attempt to soar ends in a predictable nosedive. The chart, like some arcane prophecy, reveals why these efforts are doomed.

The culprit? Bitcoin’s “unlucky 13” problem. A stubborn resistance level looms 13% above the current price, casting a shadow over every rally. Until this barrier falls, Bitcoin’s ascent will remain a Sisyphean endeavor. 🪦

Short-Term Holders: The Puppeteers of Bitcoin’s Ceiling

Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis model-a mouthful, really-pinpoints the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins. These fleeting holders are the first to panic when volatility rears its ugly head. When prices dip below their entry point, they flee like cats from a bathtub, creating a wall of sell pressure that caps Bitcoin’s ambitions.

Currently, this cost basis sits at $99,790, roughly 13% above the spot price. At $87,820, most recent buyers are underwater, explaining why every rally sputters before it can ignite. Sellers, ever vigilant, pounce early. 🐟

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HODL Waves data corroborates this tale of woe. The 1-day to 1-week cohort-short-term holders, essentially-shrank from 6.38% of supply on November 27 to a measly 2.13% by December 27. These newcomers, rather than holding their ground, are dumping coins like hot potatoes, reinforcing resistance before Bitcoin even sniffs $99,790. 🥔

Thus, $99,790 stands as Bitcoin’s most formidable near-term resistance. But beware: this on-chain level is as fickle as a Moscow winter and could shift with the spot price. Technical chart verification? Absolutely necessary. 🧐

🔄 Update:

With the spot price trading around $87.8K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $99.9K
– Spot Price: $87.8K –
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.1K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K

📊…

– glassnode (@glassnode) December 28, 2025

If Bitcoin reclaims this level, short-term holders flip into profit, forced selling ceases, and the supply pressure that thwarted every bounce dissipates like fog at dawn. 🌅

Momentum: Buyers’ Valiant, Yet Futile Efforts

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is trapped in a symmetrical triangle-a pattern that screams indecision. Lower highs and higher lows compress into a point, like a drama queen withholding the climax. A breakout is needed to confirm direction. 🎭

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) measures whether big money is flowing in or out of the market by tracking volume pressure. While CMF rises with price-indicating buyer participation-it remains below zero. 🧮

A CMF below zero signals feeble inflows, insufficient to confirm trend strength. Thus, momentum alone cannot break the triangle’s upper trendline. Buyers are present, but their efforts are like shouting into a void-effective only in theory. Until CMF climbs above zero and Bitcoin escapes the triangle, the pattern screams effort without results. 🎤

Bitcoin’s Price Levels: The 13% Barrier Unveiled

Bitcoin has been oscillating between $84,370 and $90,540 for most of late December. Every approach toward $90,540 falters as underwater holders exit to minimize losses, aligning perfectly with the short-term cost basis ceiling.

The roadmap? Simple, yet daunting. 🗺️

A move above $94,600 would signal buyer progress. Reclaiming $99,820-near the short-term holder cost basis-would shatter the unlucky 13 barrier, revive short-term holders, and weaken the selling pressure that has stifled every rally. This would, at last, turn Bitcoin’s price action bullish. 🌟

From there, $107,420 becomes the next magnet. If buyers fail to maintain momentum, $84,370 is the first support to watch. A daily close below $80,570 would confirm a breakdown, reset January’s trend expectations, and extend the range lower. 📉

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2025-12-28 19:07