Bitcoin’s Big Bounce? Experts Say This Metric Is Dead Wrong

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  • Bitcoin is currently trading 35.5% below its all-knowing power-law trend, making history as the most dramatic statistical faux pas ever.
  • Since 2010, every time Bitcoin snoozed below its fair value, it shot up over 100% within a year. Time for deja vu?
  • Models predict Bitcoin’s price will waltz back to around $145K by late 2026-because, of course, it’s simply following the ‘normal’ pattern of market magic.

Bitcoin’s current price is 35.5% beneath its 15-year trend-which, in crypto years, is basically like tripping over your shoelaces and pretending it’s ‘all part of the plan.’

Analyst David, who tweets under the alias @david_eng_mba (basically, the guy who’s seen it all), calls this a “pricing error the market refuses to admit.” Because who doesn’t love a good oversight, right?

Bitcoin’s Power-Law Model Is More Divergent Than Aunt Susan After a Bottle of Chardonnay

The fair value for Bitcoin stands at $122,425 today-yet it’s hanging out around $79,000. That’s roughly $43,457 of ‘market’s just ignoring the obvious’ magic.

David dubs this a historic “oversold” scenario, with a Z-score of -0.63-meaning Bitcoin is more off-kilter than your cousin’s questionable fashion choices in 2009. Never seen this level of deviation in 15 years.

Why Math Says This Is the Largest Pricing Error in Bitcoin History (≈105% Implied 12-Month CAGR)

Bitcoin is 35.5% below its trend. That’s not a hunch; it’s cold, hard statistics shouting, “Hey, something’s up!”

Power-law…

– David 🇺🇸 (@david_eng_mba)

Backtests on similar blips since 2010? Perfect record-every single time, the next 12 months saw over 100% gains. Yep, gold star for past predictions.

The Great Price Reversion: Bitcoin’s Coming Back with a Vengeance

The deviation’s half-life is 133 days-so every four months or so, Bitcoin’s market cleans up half of this mess. Full recovery? Usually within nine months. Fasten your seatbelts.

Using a fancy-sounding Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (try saying that after a few drinks), David’s model predicts Bitcoin could hit $113K by June 2026 and $145K by October. January 2027? Expect about $162K-because why not?

Cycle Dive: Bitcoin Is Dropping Like It’s Hot (Or Not)

Darkfost, another industry wizard, points out that Bitcoin has tumbled 36.9% from its recent high of nearly $126,000. This is the deepest dip of the current cycle-think of it as Bitcoin’s version of a bad hair day.

Just yesterday, BTC plunged 6.6%, turning the cycle’s ‘meh’ into ‘wow, that’s low.’

But don’t fret-historically, these cycles bust past 75% drops. This one? Is basically a walk in the park with a slight raincloud.

📉 Since yesterday’s 6.6% dip, the current cycle’s biggest ‘oops’ moment!

💥 Dropped 36.9% from the $126K high-like an emotional rollercoaster with fewer safety bars.

And yet…

– Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc)

Maths and Magic: The Big Upside

David’s crystal ball hints at a whopping 105% annual growth-because, obviously, the stars are aligning for more Bitcoin fireworks.

It’s built on three pillars: the sluggish decay of returns, the graceful dance of adoption curves, and some fancy statistical mumbo jumbo explaining 55% of the price movements.

Basically, the current mess? A pile of potential energy waiting to be unleashed. When it does, expect velocity and fireworks.

By October 2026, the model suggests Bitcoin could be flirting with $145,000, possibly reaching even higher-because, who needs sleep, right?

This fancy math points to a ‘market at the extreme left tail,’ where the real action happens. Think of it as the deck stack being heavily slanted in your favor – or at least, so says the numbers.

Will it all come true? Well, that’s the question. But the historical patterns? They sure do seem to suggest a very entertaining ride ahead.

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2026-02-01 18:18