Bitcoin Rises While Oil Goes on a Spending Spree and Stocks Sulk

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What to know:

  • Bitcoin rose 2.8% since midnight UTC while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures dropped more than 1.5% and oil surged to $115 per barrel. Imagine that: oil’s throwing a party and stocks are sitting in the corner sulking.
  • Gold fell 1.6% and silver 1.1%, weakening the traditional haven narrative as investors instead moved into the U.S. dollar. Gold and silver are currently taking a coffee break-literally-while the dollar gets a standing ovation.
  • Altcoins and DeFi tokens rallied overnight, with DASH, XMR and ZEC gaining up to 5.2% and ETHFI and MORPHO outperforming BTC and ETH. Clearly, the market’s decided that “digital gold” is overrated and “digital chaos” is in vogue.

Bitcoin rose 2.8% since midnight UTC after global markets plunged when futures trading opened an hour earlier. It’s like watching your neighbor win the lottery while you’re still trying to pay the mortgage.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures both fell more than 1.5% since midnight as oil surged to as high as $115 per barrel, the most since June 2022. Precious metals also suffered. Gold and silver lost 1.6% and 1.1% respectively, eroding the haven narrative as investors flocked to the U.S. dollar. The dollar’s probably smug right now, sipping a martini and whispering, “I told you so.”

Sentiment for bitcoin, meanwhile, is warming, and it has remained resilient to the war in Iran and subsequent supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Either Bitcoin’s got a thick skin or it’s just pretending not to care while oil’s drama unfolds.

“While BTC has yet to fully earn its digital gold narrative, its practical use case as a digital escape hatch is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly in Gulf countries, amid episodes of currency volatility and political uncertainty,” trading firm QCP said in a note on Monday. Translation: If you’re worried about your local currency, Bitcoin’s your new best friend-even if it’s not quite ready for a Nobel Prize in Finance.

Derivatives positioning

  • Exchanges have liquidated crypto futures bets worth nearly $400 million in 24 hours. Bearish bets on oil bore the brunt as prices for the so-called black gold rose to $115 per barrel. Oil’s clearly playing a game of Jenga with investors’ nerves-and it’s not letting them touch the top block.
  • Open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures remains steady near weekly lows of around 650K BTC, a sign the futures market is not participating in the Monday morning rally. OI in ether futures rose to 13 million ether. The futures market’s like a reluctant party guest: it shows up but pretends not to see the confetti.
  • XRP‘s OI jumped to 1.72 billion tokens, the highest since Feb. 24, alongside a small uptick in SOL OI, both indicating capital inflows. Investors are clearly betting on XRP like it’s the last slice of pizza at a family reunion.
  • OI in PAXG, AVAX, LTC and several other alternative tokens has declined over 24 hours. Investors seem to be de-risking on the price bounce. It’s the crypto equivalent of grabbing a life jacket mid-rollercoaster drop.
  • BTC and ETH’s 30-day implied volatility indexes remain steady, reflecting market calm amid chaos in Asian equities and oil markets. The market’s like a zen master who’s seen every disaster movie imaginable-and still thinks it’s a rom-com.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, signaling persistent downside concerns. However, the premium remains largely unchanged from last week, suggesting the surge in oil prices hasn’t sparked an outsized demand for protective puts. Investors are hedging their bets like they’re playing poker with a loaded gun.
  • The BTC implied volatility term structure remains in backwardation, a sign traders are pricing higher volatility in the short term relative to the long term. That’s consistent with the unknowns of the war. In other words, no one has a clue what’s happening-and they’re charging you for the privilege of pretending they do.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market was buoyant overnight with tokens including DASH, XMR and ZEC posting gains between 3.8% and 5.2%. Altcoins are currently the rock stars of the crypto world-everyone’s cheering except the journalists writing about them.
  • Decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens also performed well. ETHFI and MORPHO have both outperformed bitcoin and ether (ETH) since midnight. DeFi’s like that eccentric uncle who claims he invented the internet in his garage-and then actually does something useful with it.
  • CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is now at 36/100, significantly higher than February’s low of 22/100. A CoinDesk report on Friday suggested that the lack of altcoin mentions on social media could be bullish in terms of a market reversal. Because nothing says “bullish” like everyone forgetting you exist until suddenly they don’t.
  • The best performing benchmark of the past 24 hours was CoinDesk’s Computing Select Index (CPUS), which includes chainlink and bittensor (TAO) and is up by 2.7%, followed by the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index (SCPXC), which rose by 0.92% since Sunday morning. If computing were a person, it’d be the one quietly building a spaceship while everyone else argues about the weather.
  • On the flip side, institutional-focused token canton (CC) lost 3.4% of its value in the past 24 hours while, the token created by OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman, fell by around 2%. Sam Altman’s token is like a toddler with a calculator: it looks impressive, but it’s mostly just confusing.

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2026-03-09 13:39