AVAX’s 25% Surge: Will It Break 3-Year Downtrend? 💸

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Oh, look at that! After months of losses, altcoins are finally showing signs of recovery… and Avalanche is playing the role of the reluctant hero. Who knew crypto could be so dramatic?

On February 20, 2026, AVAX had a moment of glory, with volume jumping 25% to $248.87 million. It traded around $9.25, which, if you’ve been following the story, is still way below its former glory. The market’s like a broken record: “It’s different this time!”

Since that crash, the descending resistance has been like a stubborn ex, rejecting every attempt at a comeback. Meanwhile, $7.29 acted as key structural support and remained the level bulls could not afford to lose. Because nothing says “confidence” like a price point that’s basically a prayer.

With price pressing resistance again, the real question was whether momentum finally had the strength to break it. Spoiler: probably not. But hey, maybe this time it’s different! (Cue ominous music.)

MACD forms a bullish crossover

On the daily chart, AVAX formed a bullish MACD crossover as it approached the downtrend channel from October’s crash. The histogram turned slightly positive, signaling short-term momentum shifting away from bearish control. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto equivalent of a lukewarm hug.”

At press time, RSI climbed toward 42, recovering from recent lows but still below 50. Therefore, momentum improved, yet it had not fully transitioned into bullish territory. AVAX remained directly under resistance, which limited the impact of the crossover. Because nothing says “optimism” like being stuck under a brick wall.

Leverage market analysis

Spot Taker Buy Dominance stayed elevated on Cumulative Volume Delta, according to CryptoQuant, reflecting aggressive market buying. It’s like everyone’s rushing to the party, but no one’s sure if they’re invited. Or maybe they’re just here to watch the chaos.

Moreover, Futures Taker Buy Dominance also remained elevated, showing participation across leveraged markets. Because nothing says “I’m confident” like risking your life savings on a coin that’s been on a rollercoaster since 2021.

This combination suggested active demand rather than passive bidding. However, despite strong taker activity, the price failed to decisively reclaim the descending resistance. Because nothing says “I’m serious” like a price that’s still stuck in the same old rut.

As a result, buyer aggression had not yet translated into structural change. However, the data implied accumulation was developing beneath price action. Only a structural breakout could validate that buildup. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto version of a ‘we need to talk’ message.”

Will AVAX break its multi-year downtrend?

On the weekly chart, the multi-year downtrend continued to act as macro resistance. Every major rally since 2021 had stalled beneath this ceiling. This meant AVAX had remained in a bear market since 2021. Because nothing says “long-term investment” like a coin that’s been in a downward spiral for years.

Weekly RSI remained near 31.78 and below its moving average, signaling weak momentum. Weekly MACD stayed below zero with a slightly negative histogram. Therefore, the broader structure remained bearish despite short-term improvement on lower timeframes. Because nothing says “hope” like a chart that’s still screaming “sell!”

Looking ahead, a weekly close above the multi-year downtrend would be required to confirm a shift. Until that happened, Avalanche remained within a larger bearish framework. Or, as I like to call it, “the crypto equivalent of a never-ending soap opera.”

Final Summary

  • Elevated taker dominance and rising volume showed participation, not confirmation. Because nothing says “I’m interested” like a bunch of people buying on a whim.
  • A weekly reclaim of macro resistance remained the defining requirement for trend reversal. Or, as I like to call it, “the holy grail of crypto.”

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2026-02-20 23:23