Ah! The price of HBAR, my dear readers, is like a tragic hero in a Molière play, burdened by the weight of a fickle market! It languishes under the heavy pressure of its own misfortunes, having plummeted nearly 47% over the past three moons, and in just one day, it has taken another nosedive of 6%, mimicking the latest lament of Bitcoin. But lo! This is not merely a fleeting sorrow! Since September, our poor Hedera has been on a steady decline, losing almost 67% of its former glory.
What could possibly be the cause, you ask? A most grievous affliction: dwindling network liquidity, tepid institutional interest, and a retail audience that has seemingly taken its leave! As the Total Value Locked (TVL) continues to fall faster than a clumsy actor off the stage, and the ETFs remain as absent as a good jest in a dull comedy, the charts ominously predict that our dear HBAR may be poised for yet another pitiful plunge. Let us delve into the data, shall we?
The Tragic Decline of Hedera’s TVL – A Liquidity Exodus Most Dire
The downtrend of HBAR commenced in mid-September, akin to a play where the protagonist realizes they are trapped in a descending spiral. Rally after rally has proven weaker, while breakdowns have pushed our token deeper into despair.
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This sad tale mirrors the fate of Hedera’s on-chain liquidity.
Once, the total value locked was a respectable $122.5 million in September, but alas! It has now plummeted to around $56 million-a most disheartening decline of over 50%! When TVL diminishes, it signifies users withdrawing funds faster than an actor fleeing the stage during a bad performance.
In simpler terms, money has been making its exit from the network for months now! The price follows suit, echoing this fundamental frailty. Hence, the gradual descent of HBAR appears like a slow-moving tragedy rather than a sudden catastrophe. Liquidity has been evaporating steadily, and without fresh capital, any semblance of a rally dies quicker than a punchline without laughter.
As long as TVL remains in such a lamentable state, HBAR’s potential for upward movement remains exceedingly constrained.
The Chaikin Money Flow: A Glimmer of Hope Amidst the Gloom
Ah! Not all signals are foreboding.
The Chaikin Money Flow has been rising since mid-December, even as our beleaguered price deteriorates further. A bullish divergence, you say? Indeed! It suggests that some larger investors are cautiously accumulating. Yet, let us not be too hasty! The CMF still lingers below zero; outflows reign supreme like an overbearing director. Inflows are improving-albeit not with the vigor one would hope for.
Furthermore, our spot HBAR ETFs have shown no recent inflows over the past fortnight. Oh, how they mock us! These ETFs are the lifeblood of institutional capital, essential for elevating our beleaguered CMF above the dreaded zero line. Their absence doth stifle our hopes of upward momentum.
And now, the most dire news arrives from the On-Balance Volume. OBV has been tumbling downwards since October, signaling a weakening of participation and conviction, even amidst fleeting moments of exuberance. Recently, OBV has plunged below its once-reliable support line.
When OBV falters beneath long-term support, it grieves us by indicating that selling pressure is escalating, and market participation is waning. Fewer buyers are stepping in, even when prices grow ever more tempting.
Thus, our current predicament can be summarized as follows:
- A smattering of large buyers accumulates with great caution (the CMF divergence)
- Institutional flows remain as timid as a mouse (ETF inactivity)
- Broader participation shrinks like a poorly received play (OBV breakdown)
Without strong volume support, our rallies lack the fervor needed to succeed. This explains why HBAR continues to falter at resistance, despite the occasional glimmer of hope.
Until OBV finds its footing and ETF demand rekindles, our hopes for upward movement remain fragile, like a delicate soufflé!
The Falling Channel and OBV Breakdown: A 30% Risk Awaits
Indeed, the structure of Hedera’s price encapsulates this precarious situation.
HBAR is ensnared in a falling channel, guiding its price ever lower since September, with breakdown projections hinting at a painful 30% drop should the lower trendline shatter.
The first major support huddles near $0.080-$0.076, a refuge established post the great crash of October 10. A daily close below this level would spell disaster for our structure. Should that fortress fall, the next support huddles near $0.062, as foretold by the Fibonacci extensions.
If this level succumbs, the channel projection ominously points toward $0.043, unveiling the harrowing 30% breakdown path. Conversely, recovery seems as elusive as a lost script.
HBAR must first reclaim $0.107. A triumphant move above $0.134 is requisite to break free from this bearish channel. Alas, such a feat likely requires:
- A sustained rebound in TVL
- Consistent ETF inflows
Without these divine interventions, any attempt at a price bounce may vanish quicker than a bad pun at a comedy night!
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2026-02-05 22:47