Bitcoin’s Rebound: A Bull Trap or a Big Joke?

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Ladies and gentlemen, gather ’round! Behold the tale of Bitcoin’s latest escapade-a plunge so steep it could make a ladder blush. January saw our friend Bitcoin drop 11%, extending its losing streak to four months, the longest since 2018. A veritable feast for skeptics, this market turbulence has left even gold looking like a reluctant participant in a comedy of errors.

Major large-cap indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF led market gains with a 1.32% rally by midday. A triumph so slight it could be mistaken for a yawn.

Crude oil prices, meanwhile, plunged as the U.S. military assembles in the Gulf. A spectacle as dramatic as a soap opera in a war zone.

Brent, the global benchmark, dropped by 4.75% to $66, while the West Texas Intermediate plunged to $61. At the same time, gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, retreated to $4,600 from the all-time high of $5,568. A fall so steep, it made a cliff look like a trampoline.

More data from Polymarket shows that the odds of the U.S. striking Iran have continued falling. Odds of strikes happening by the end of the year moved from 80% to 69%. A decline so gradual, it’s like watching paint dry with a side of suspense.

The crypto crash also stalled as the Fear and Greed Index slumped to 14, its lowest level this year. In most cases, crypto rebounds occur when the index moves into the extreme fear zone. A paradox so profound, it’s fit for a philosopher’s pondering.

Bitcoin price technicals suggest the rally could be a bull trap

The weekly chart shows that the BTC price has crashed in the past few months. It’s like a drunk man trying to walk a tightrope-unpredictable and fraught with peril.

It has already flipped the Supertrend indicator from green to red. The last time this happened was in 2021, and the coin tumbled by over 70% after that. A repeat performance so likely, it’s practically a guaranteed ticket to disappointment.

Bitcoin has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and the 50-week Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic Oscillator continued falling. A symphony of despair, if you will.

Therefore, these technical indicators suggest that the Bitcoin price may continue to fall in the near term. If this happens, it may continue falling, potentially to the 50% retracement level at $70,000. A descent so steep, it’s like a rock in a rollercoaster.

This view aligns with Michael Novogratz’s recent prediction when he noted that a full Bitcoin recovery will be confirmed when it moves above $100,000 and $103,000. A threshold as elusive as a unicorn in a zoo.

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2026-02-02 23:51