Well, it seems Bitcoin‘s been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately, and guess what? It’s not the thrilling kind of ride. No, we’re talking about the kind where your stomach drops, and you regret every decision that led you here. According to CryptoQuant’s Darkfost, 43% of Bitcoin’s supply is now firmly underwater. That’s right, nearly half of Bitcoin holders are holding onto their investments like they’re waiting for a life raft. Only 57% of the supply is still managing to float above water. Great.
Darkfost, the guy who charts Bitcoin like he’s reading tea leaves, says this shift is pretty telling. You see, Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are the key to understanding how many people are smiling, and how many are crying in the crypto world. When UTXOs start bleeding into loss territory like this, it usually signals that the market’s nearing the dreaded bear territory. But don’t worry-this is fine.
“Roughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss,” Darkfost posted on X. Oh, great. So, if you’re still clinging to your Bitcoin dreams, you’re now statistically more likely to be underwater than not. He goes on to explain that, historically, when 75% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit, we’re in the midst of a bull market. Well, with 43% of the supply sinking, things are looking a bit shaky. The math here? “Closer to bear market phases,” says Darkfost. You know, just a casual observation.
Darkfost isn’t calling for an outright disaster, though. He’s suggesting that the market is showing signs of… stabilization. We should all just sit tight, because this rollercoaster may take a breather. But, of course, there’s still a chance Bitcoin could slip even further, pushing that 43% loss number closer to 45%. Who doesn’t love a little more drama in their life?
Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin
And as if things weren’t complicated enough, let’s throw a little geopolitics into the mix. According to Darkfost, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz (yes, that one) and skyrocketing oil prices are also having an effect on Bitcoin. Oil has jumped by over 60% this year, because why not add more global panic to the list? And with oil being so, you know, important to the whole global economy, it’s putting more pressure on Bitcoin’s already shaky foundation. Thanks, oil.
Darkfost points out that higher oil prices tend to increase inflation, and-surprise, surprise-this environment isn’t great for speculative assets like Bitcoin. In fact, historically, when oil prices surge, Bitcoin’s “end-of-cycle phases” aren’t far behind. And, of course, geopolitical tensions are the cherry on top of this financial sundae. Can we get a break?
So, as it stands, Bitcoin isn’t officially in bear territory yet, but it sure is drifting that way. The real question is whether Bitcoin can manage to claw its way back to a 75% profit threshold, or whether we’re about to see more losses pile up. Stay tuned, folks. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at…
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2026-03-09 11:28