Bitcoin’s 10 AM Plunge: Jane Street’s Shenanigans or Just Market Nonsense?

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Well, bless my bloomin’ blockchain, if it ain’t another day in the wild west of crypto! Bitcoin‘s been ridin’ high, but the vultures are circlin’ again, this time with their eyes on Jane Street, the high-falutin’ traders with pockets deeper than a Mississippi mudhole.

Seems every time Bitcoin takes a tumble at 10 AM sharp, folks start pointin’ fingers at Jane Street, hollerin’ about manipulation and market mischief. But hold on to your hats, folks, ’cause this tale’s got more twists than a river in flood.

Jane Street: Market Maestro or Crypto Villain?

Crypto Twitter’s been abuzz like a hive of angry bees, all a-twitter about Jane Street’s supposed shenanigans. Google Trends says folks are searchin’ for “Jane Street Bitcoin” like it’s the answer to all their prayers (or their worst nightmares).

Follow us on X for more of this circus as it unfolds.

Now, some folks are swearin’ blind that Jane Street’s got a 10 AM appointment with Bitcoin’s downfall, sellin’ off like there’s no tomorrow. Zero Hedge, that old doom-monger, been bangin’ this drum since 2024, sayin’ Bitcoin takes a nosedive every mornin’ right after the US market opens. Jane Street, they say, is the culprit, with their fancy algorithms and billions in BlackRock’s IBIT.

$BTC‘s been takin’ a header ~2-3% faster than a drunk man off a barstool, right at 10 AM ET, near ’bout every tradin’ day since November. Them traders are pointin’ fingers at Jane Street’s hefty $2.5B+ stash in BlackRock’s IBIT, sayin’ they’re engineerin’ liquidity sweeps to line their own pockets…

– Whale Factor (@WhaleFactor) December 9, 2025

And then there’s Bull Theory, spoutin’ off about Jane Street’s high-frequency hijinks:

“Jane Street, they’re the biggest fish in the high-frequency pond. They got the speed and the cash to move markets like a tornado through a trailer park. Their game’s simple: 1. Dump BTC at the open. 2. Push the price into liquidity pockets, like a bull in a china shop. 3. Buy back in lower. 4. Repeat daily, like clockwork.”

Now, BeInCrypto, they reported back then that no regulator, exchange, or independent data source had confirmed any funny business. But that ain’t stoppin’ the rumors from flyin’ thicker than mosquitoes on a summer evening. Especially after Terraform Labs’ administrator sued Jane Street, accusin’ them of bringin’ down the whole crypto market in 2022.

“Who crashed Luna and UST to zero and sent the crypto market into a tailspin in 2022? Jane Street, that’s who. The same Jane Street accused of this ’10 AM manipulation’ also front-ran the Terra collapse,” Ash Crypto chimed in.

And there it is: Jane Street was behind the 2022 crypto winter, destroyin’ Terraform by first depeggin’ the token and wreckin’ the ecosystem, then pretendin’ they’d rescue it, while really just pickin’ the bones clean.

– zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 24, 2026

Jane Street, they deny it all, sayin’ they’re as innocent as a newborn babe. But that ain’t stoppin’ the speculation, especially after some folks noticed their X account went quieter than a church mouse after the lawsuit.

Some analysts are connectin’ dots between the lawsuit and Bitcoin’s recent price climb, sayin’ the 10 AM sell-offs stopped once Jane Street got lawyers breathin’ down their necks.

This is crazier than a bedbug convention.

Since Jane Street got sued two days ago, the 10 AM shenanigans have stopped.

Bitcoin’s up 10%, addin’ $120 billion to its market cap, and the weekly candle’s turned green after five straight red ones.

The whole crypto market’s up nearly $200 billion…

– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 25, 2026

Justin Bechler, he’s got a theory too. He says the “daily flash crashes” stopped after the Terraform Labs lawsuit went public last year, but then started up again in Q3 2025. By December, he says, they were back with a vengeance.

“Basically, the 10 AM dumps stopped the moment Jane Street had lawyers lookin’ over their shoulder, and started again when the heat died down,” he wrote. “Bitcoin oughta be at least $150,000 right now, and everybody knows it. Yesterday, a federal lawsuit was filed in Manhattan that explains exactly why it ain’t.”

Bechler also points out Jane Street’s big position in IBIT and MicroStrategy, sayin’ it looks like bullish accumulation if you don’t know what Jane Street’s really about. He says their role as an authorized participant gives them “direct access to the mechanism that connects ETF share prices to actual Bitcoin.”

“When Jane Street reports holdin’ $790 million in IBIT shares, that filing don’t tell you nothin’ about whether those shares are hedged by puts, offset by short futures, or wrapped in a collar that makes their net Bitcoin exposure zero or even negative,” he remarked.

He says the public only sees what looks like accumulation, but in reality, it could be a significant short position disguised as a long one, since the other side of the trade ain’t visible.

“If the firm holds $790 million in IBIT shares and offsets that position with $790 million in put options or short futures, the net exposure is zero. If the derivative book exceeds the equity position, the net exposure is negative, meanin’ Jane Street profits when Bitcoin’s price falls. In either case, they got every incentive to use their privileged position to suppress the spot price, trigger liquidations, and harvest the spread,” Bechler commented.

The Other Side of the Story: Volatility, Not Villainy

Now, not everyone’s buyin’ into this Jane Street conspiracy. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, he says the mechanics described ain’t nothin’ unusual. “That’s what any delta neutral fund does,” he says.

Moreno also points out the lack of broader market context. He says Bitcoin spot demand’s been fallin’ since October 2025, which is a clear driver of the price decline.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, he chimed in too. He says Bitcoin’s historically rallied into early March during midterm years, and each market cycle produces its own narrative to explain price movements.

“Bitcoin price action ain’t no manipulated conspiracy,” he wrote.

Jeff Park, chief investment officer at ProCap and adviser to Bitwise, he suggests the whole debate reflects a misunderstanding of how ETF plumbing works. He says focusin’ on Jane Street ignores the structural mechanics governin’ all Authorized Participants within the Bitcoin ETF framework.

Everyone’s askin’: “Is Jane Street why Bitcoin ain’t at $150k?”

As expected, the answer’s trickier than the question. But it’s also more structurally unsettling than the conspiracy theory itself-and once you understand the actual mechanics, you won’t be able to unsee them👇

– Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 25, 2026

And let’s not forget the folks on X who claimed Jane Street deleted all their posts after the lawsuit. Economist Alex Krüger set the record straight, sayin’ Jane Street never had any posts to begin with. “The amount of fake news and false narratives in crypto is truly remarkable,” he posted.

“Jane Street had no posts to delete. Can corroborate that on the Wayback Machine,” he said.

Why the 10 AM Theory Sticks

Retail traders, they’ve been watchin’ Bitcoin ignore bullish news, like MicroStrategy’s buys and a favorable regulatory environment, while the price stays weak and sentiment sinks into extreme fear. In that kind of climate, a simple explanation, no matter how far-fetched, can be mighty appealin’.

The apparent pause in the 10 AM pattern after the lawsuit fits neatly into a narrative where correlation equals causation, which is all too common on Crypto Twitter.

But remember, folks, correlation don’t prove nothin’. For now, the 10 AM theory’s just that-a theory, not a fact. So, don’t go sellin’ your Bitcoin just yet, and don’t go pitchin’ your tent on Jane Street’s lawn either. The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in the murky middle.

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2026-02-26 13:01