Bitcoin’s 29% Drop: Sellers Exhausted? VanEck’s Shocking Claim!

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Bitcoin has suffered a most ungentlemanly 29% decline over the last 30 days, yet a new report from VanEck suggests that the worst of the selling pressure may finally be behind us, which is a most refreshing change from the usual chaos.

According to the asset manager’s Bitcoin ChainCheck, authored by digital asset researchers Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, the recent market flush has successfully reset leverage and driven sentiment into “fear” territory, a state of mind more common in Victorian drawing rooms than in financial markets.

Resilient on-chain fundamentals and tightening miner supply indicate a much stronger market setup than current prices imply, which is a curious thing to say about a cryptocurrency that seems to have more volatility than a Parisian salon.

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“Fear takes over”

Bitcoin’s slide toward the $67,000 level has thoroughly flushed out market speculators, a process as delightful as watching a well-dressed gentleman trip over his own feet. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator plunged into the “optimism/anxiety” zone, and even briefly breached into pure “fear” during the dramatic price plunge on February 2, a day that will be remembered as the first time a cryptocurrency made a grown man weep.

Alongside this sentiment shift, futures open interest has sunk to its lowest level since the last ice age, or at least since September 2024. Yet, despite the pessimism, VanEck points out that network usage remains as robust as a well-timed joke at a funeral. Daily transactions sit in the 90th percentile of all-time history, proving that underlying network demand has not evaporated with the price, which is a miracle of modern technology.

Exhausted sellers 

To understand who has been driving the sell-off, VanEck analyzed Spent Volume by Age Band (SVAB) data. 

The report confirms that the bulk of the cyclical selling pressure has come from “mid-cycle” holders-investors who acquired their coins between one and five years ago, a period that seems to have been chosen with the same foresight as a man choosing a life partner.

Many of these holders likely pulled their sales forward to capitalize on the early 2024 ETF launches and the post-election rally, a move as predictable as a sunset in a British garden.

However, the data now shows a massive deceleration in distribution. Over the past month, selling from coins older than one year has fallen significantly. With sellers absorbing roughly $22.5 billion in realized losses over the last 30 days, the lack of continued distribution indicates deep seller exhaustion, a state of mind more common in a weary pianist than a cryptocurrency investor.

A bottom?

Plunging Bitcoin prices and static electricity costs have severely compressed mining margins, rendering older machines like the Antminer S19 XP entirely unprofitable for operators paying more than $0.07/kWh, which is about as profitable as a parrot reciting Shakespeare.

As a result, the Bitcoin network hash rate has contracted by roughly 14% over the past 90 days, a decline as dramatic as a society lady’s reputation after a single misstep.

VanEck notes that sustained 90-day hash rate drawdowns are relatively rare, a fact as surprising as a well-dressed gentleman in a modern art gallery. Historically, these periods of capitulation and network contraction have preceded incredibly strong forward returns for Bitcoin over the subsequent three months, a pattern as reliable as a clockwork toy in the hands of a child.

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2026-02-21 00:38