An Israeli soldier and a civilian have been charged with a crime after allegedly using secret military details to make bets on Polymarket, a platform where people predict future events.
Israeli authorities have charged an IDF reservist and a civilian with using secret military information to make bets on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, according to The Times of Israel.
Use of Classified Information
Following a collaborative investigation by the Defense Ministry, Shin Bet, and Israel Police, several people have been arrested, including reserve soldiers. Authorities claim these reservists misused confidential military information to place bets on the outcomes of future military events.
Authorities have charged a military reservist and a civilian with serious crimes, including bribery and attempting to interfere with the investigation. Due to a court order, details about the case – such as exactly what happened and who is being questioned – are currently sealed.
Defense officials have jointly cautioned that gambling with classified information poses a significant risk to both IDF operations and national security. They emphasized that this behavior is taken extremely seriously and that anyone who illegally uses secret material will face strong consequences.
As an analyst, I’ve been following a concerning case. It comes on the heels of an investigation last month where the Shin Bet looked into whether someone within our defense system leaked classified information to be used for betting on Polymarket. That initial report focused on a specific Polymarket account, ‘ricosuave666,’ which made several surprisingly accurate predictions in June 2025 about Israeli military actions in Iran. It definitely raised some red flags.
The report shows the user wagered a significant amount of money—tens of thousands of dollars—and earned approximately $150,000 in profit.
Market Manipulation Concerns
As a researcher, I’ve been following Polymarket’s rise, and it’s attracting a really diverse group of users – from everyday traders to prominent figures like Vitalik Buterin. He recently revealed he made around $70,000 last year by betting against what he considered unlikely outcomes. Beyond serious predictions, the platform also hosts fun, widely-discussed bets. For example, people were more likely to bet on discovering alien life in 2025 than on Bitcoin hitting $200,000, particularly when the crypto market was volatile.
The platform has grown quickly and sometimes awarded significant prizes, but it’s also received criticism regarding possible unfair practices and the risk of people using confidential information for personal gain.
A new study from Columbia University shows that suspicious trading activity, known as wash trading, started increasing on Polymarket in July 2024. It reached its highest point in December 2024, accounting for almost 60% of all trades reported. This activity continued into late April 2025 and then rose again, reaching around 20% of the trading volume by early October 2025.
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2026-02-14 01:38