When the POC Goes Missing: Ethereum’s Descent to $1,800

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Ethereum has parked itself at the grand old high-volume shore near $1,800, like a cautious wizard waiting for a dragon to cough up a clue. The bullish crowd has thinned to a polite whisper, and the arithmetic of optimism feels a bit fatigued, leaving the stage open for a deeper wobble and maybe a capitulation to the downside.

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Ethereum’s current behavior around $1,800 is technically significant. While price has not yet broken down, the lack of upward follow-through after the initial bounce is a warning sign. In great reversals, consolidation at support is usually accompanied by expanding bullish volume and higher daily closes. Instead, Ethereum has spent several sessions shuffling sideways, as if the buyers misplaced their marching orders and the market forgot its alarm clock.

This sort of price action often presages continuation rather than reversal. When markets consolidate at high-volume nodes without renewed demand, the odds tilt toward the idea that support will eventually give way as sellers swallow the remaining bids and the chorus of buyers packs up their instruments.

Volume profile highlights lack of bullish commitment

From a volume-profile point of view, Ethereum’s bounce lacks conviction. Bullish volume has steadily declined since the price first reacted from the $1,800 region, implying that the appetite to rescue the day isn’t robust enough to sustain a meaningful recovery. This mismatch between price stability and dropping volume is more likely exhaustion than strength.

Consequently, the current structure resembles a pause within a broader corrective trend rather than a base for reversal. Without a clear volume expansion, Ethereum remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Capitulation risk grows below the point of control

The point of control often acts as a stabilizing force during consolidation. However, once the price loses the POC on a daily closing basis, it signals a shift from balance to imbalance. In Ethereum’s case, such a move would likely trigger an acceleration lower as price seeks the next major area of acceptance.

Below the current range, the next key target sits at the value area low, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the current downside move. This zone represents a classic capitulation target, where emotional selling and liquidity sweeps often occur before markets attempt to form durable bottoms.

A move into this region would not necessarily imply long-term bearish continuation. Instead, it could represent the final stage of the current corrective cycle, flushing weak positioning and resetting market structure.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price-action, and market-structure perspective, Ethereum is at a make-or-break level. Continued consolidation without bullish expansion increases the probability that the $1,800 support will eventually fail. A confirmed daily close below the point of control would significantly raise the risk of a capitulation move toward the value area low.

For the bearish scenario to be invalidated, Ethereum would need to reclaim higher value levels with strong volume and demonstrate sustained acceptance above current resistance. Until that occurs, downside risk remains elevated.

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2026-02-11 21:58